AL-02: Bright Leads Love by 10

Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (8/3-6, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 50

Jay Love (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Impressive numbers for Bobby Bright, especially when you consider the district’s generic ballot (45R-33D) and partisan self-identification (44R-36D). And while the primary gave Jay Lovin’ a huge boost in name recognition (74%), Bright’s name ID is only five points higher (79%), throwing a bit of sand on the assumption that Love would pull ahead as soon as he increased his profile in the district.

Bright’s personal favorability is very high in the district, with 63% rating him favorably and only 16% unfavorably. Additionally, his job approval ratings as mayor of Montgomery are even higher: 68-9.

By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say that Love is running a negative campaign. So while his primary did boost his numbers somewhat, he’s still dealing with a bit of a hangover from its nasty tone.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re liking what we see here today.

(H/T: Political Parlor)

UPDATE: Jay Lovin’ has released his own internal poll. McLaughlin & Associates (7/21-22, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D): 39

Jay Love (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Well, both camps agree on one thing; as they say in tennis “40 Love”. (H/T: Andy Dufresne)

22 thoughts on “AL-02: Bright Leads Love by 10”

  1. This is a partisan poll, but Anzalone’s early numbers on the Travis Childers-Greg Davis match-up were right on the money, so I buy them.  

    Did you anyone else see the excellent Wall Street Jounral article on Bobby Bright on their frontpage yesterday?  You can’t buy that kind of good publicity.  I really appreciated a quote from one of Love’s primary opponent’s who said Bright was “the man to beat.”  

    I think Anzalone waited to drop this poll to come right after the awesome WSJ coverage, which has been getting notice in Alabama.

    Incredible news.

    http://online.wsj.com/public/a…

  3. When I said “drop” what I was referring to was conducting a poll at all and then releasing it.  I am guessing that Anzalone and Bright’s decision to do a poll at this time and then release it had a little to do with the favorable impending Journal article.  

    Nevertheless, whether or not this was all orchestrated, it turned out extremely well for Bright.  The Alabama TV stations have been covering it, and the Love campaign is not happy, claiming the article was biased, which is funny considering the article’s source.  

    The WSJ article is really positive, in case you have not taken a look at it.  

  5. These southern districts are really looking great! Hopefully it bodes well for Carmouche and some of the other challenges in the region as well.

  6. also did the polling for Don Cazayoux.  Back in May, Chris Cillizza named John Anzalone one of his winners, calling him “the hottest commodity in the consultant business these days”.  And the paper also noted this back in April:

    The best pollster you’ve never heard of is expanding his operation to the nation’s capital. John Anzalone, of Anzalone Liszt Research, is opening a Washington office to be run by Marc Silverman, a senior associate in the firm. The Democratic survey research firm became among the hottest in the nation after the 2006 cycle in which it conducted polling for Reps. Heath Shuler (N.C.), Ron Klein (Fla.), Paul W. Hodes (N.H.) and Jason Altmire (Pa.) — all of whom defeated Republican incumbents. “As our Washington-based client list has grown and we have developed a national reputation, opening a D.C. office is a natural next step for our firm,” Anzalone said.

    He’s also done polling for Obama.  Cillizza reports that Anzalone is now also working for Kay Hagan (NC-Sen) and Debbie Halvorson (IL-11).  Anzalone is from Alabama, so working for Bobby Bright makes perfect sense.

  7. This per Reid Wilson’s page:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

    Love’s own poll, apparently leaked to Wilson, has Love leading 41-39.  It was taken July 21 and 22.  Take it for what it’s worth.  I don’t buy it simply because Love just got through a disgusting primary that bothered a lot of people there, including many Republicans.

    Let me add that I read Reid Wilson every day, and he has a lot of good stuff on his page, Politics Nation, but he is clearly skewed to the right in what he writes.  He likes to frame many of his posts to be favorable to Republicans or unfavorable to Democrats.  It bothers me a bit, but I guess that goes with the territory.  

    His line that the polls make reading the race “muddy” are kind of false; if the Republican candidate is up two in his own poll in a R+13 district in rural Alabama, that ain’t muddy — it is bad news for the GOP and its candidate.  Come on Reid, you can do better than that.  

  8. they are both too optimistic for their respective candidates, which means is Love has himself up only 2, Bright is definitely up…like 5.

    This is great. If for no other reason than the Republicans have to defend the Alabama 2nd district with money they don’t got.  

  9. I found this great article on the Wall Street Journal from yesterday detailing the growing strength of Democrats in the South and some background information regarding Bobby Bright.

    I especially liked what Jay Love’s former primary opponent, state Rep. David Grimes, said of Bright:

    “Party means less today than it has in my lifetime in Alabama,” says state Rep. David Grimes, who lost to Mr. Love in the nomination battle for the congressional seat. Mr. Grimes says the mayor’s ties to southeast Alabama, especially his blue-collar upbringing and conservative values, will serve him well in November.

    “I tell you this: Bobby Bright is going to be the man to beat.”

    I actually thought Bright might win even before the Republicans completed their primary. Now it looks as though he might, but it still looks like a tough climb (if Love’s internal poll has any merit to it)

  10. even Love’s poll shows it as a tossup. C’mon SSP, time for a change!

    The key to winning in southern districts IMO is building up a strong record as a local official from a GOP part of the state/district. Childers, Cazayoux, Carmouche, Bright, Musgrove. People like that are going to make us the dominant party in the South again even if it’s not as progressive a party as we would like it to be.

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